Cyclone heading for Andhra Pradesh: where it lands on 28 October, how strong it gets and what the warnings mean

Weather news has a habit of arriving in capital letters. The India Meteorological Department's coastal bulletin for Andhra Pradesh is literally written in them. Strip away the shouting and the message is fairly calm and fairly serious at the same time. A cyclone is coming, the forecast is unusually specific, and the state has about two days to get ready.

What is coming, and when

On Sunday morning the system was a depression in the Bay of Bengal. By 11.30 am it had intensified into a deep depression about 870 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, according to IMD national bulletin number 5, issued on 25 October.

The IMD expects it to become a cyclonic storm by early Monday, a severe cyclonic storm by the morning of 27 October and then a very severe cyclonic storm. It is "very likely to cross Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam" by the forenoon of 28 October, with maximum sustained winds of 115 to 125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph, the bulletin says.

The bulletin's own forecast table shows the storm at its strongest on 27 October, weakening to a severe cyclonic storm by 11.30 am on 28 October and to a depression by late on 29 October as it moves inland and north.

What the labels mean

Cyclone categories sound like a ranking of moods, but they are wind speed bands. A cyclonic storm carries maximum sustained winds of 62 to 88 kmph, and a severe cyclonic storm 89 to 117 kmph, The Hindu explained. The forecast for this one goes above that band at landfall, which is why the IMD calls it very severe.

Who should pay attention

The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority has started preparing. Its Managing Director, Prakhar Jain, told The Hindu that people in low-lying areas and kutcha houses in coastal districts from Bapatla to Vizianagaram would be moved to shelters. He named Bapatla, Krishna, West Godavari, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema, Kakinada, Anakapalli, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam as the districts where impact was expected.

A red alert is in place for Krishna and Bapatla on 27 October. On 28 October it widens to Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli, Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru, NTR, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla, with isolated extremely heavy rain expected, The Hindu reported. The state has 12 battalions of the State Disaster Response Force and seven of the National Disaster Response Force, and has asked for three more NDRF battalions.

Andhra is not the only state on the map. The IMD bulletin warns of extremely heavy rain at isolated places over Odisha and eastern Telangana on 28 October and over south Chhattisgarh the same day, with heavy rain spreading to Jharkhand, Bihar, Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh between 28 and 30 October. If you have a train, a flight or a family wedding anywhere on that line this week, it is worth checking again on Tuesday.

The quiet before

Here is the slightly eerie part. Most of coastal Andhra recorded no rain on Saturday. Only YSR Kadapa and Anantapur saw widespread moderate showers, and the state may get only light showers on 25 and 26 October, with the real rain starting on 27 October, according to The Hindu. A blue sky on Monday is not a cancelled cyclone.

Our view

India has become genuinely good at the first job in a cyclone, which is getting people out of harm's way before landfall. The forecast here names a stretch of coast and a morning two days out, and that kind of precision is what makes evacuation work.

The harder job comes later, when the water has to go somewhere. Cities along this coast will learn again how much of their drainage still exists only on paper. Treating rivers, lakes and stormwater channels as working infrastructure, the idea behind Earth5R's urban sustainability work, sounds dull right up until the week it isn't.

For now, the practical advice is the boring kind. Follow the IMD and state alerts, charge your phone, keep documents in a plastic bag, and if officials ask you to move, move. Cyclones reward people who are slightly overprepared and slightly underwhelmed afterwards.